Xiaojun "Gene" Shan
Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/10657.1/1656
Dr. Xiaojun (Gene) Shan is an Assistant Professor of Engineering Management at University of Houston-Clear Lake. Dr. Shan's research interests are in the areas of Healthcare systems engineering, modeling, applied operations research/optimization, continuous process improvement, health information systems, data mining and big data analytics, with emphasis on operational excellence; Mathematical modeling (with focus on game-theoretic modeling) of complex systems (e.g., health care delivery, defense and electricity systems); Risk management against man-made and natural disasters.
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Browsing Xiaojun "Gene" Shan by Author "Davidson, R. A."
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Item Hurricane Loss Modeling to Support Regional Retrofit Policymaking: A North Carolina Case Study(11th International Conference on Structural Safety and Reliability, 2013-06-16) Peng, J.; Shan, Xiaojun; Davidson, R. A.; Kesete, Y.; Gao, Y.; Nozick, L. K.Abstract not available.Item Hurricane Loss Modeling to Support Regional Retrofit Policymaking: A North Carolina Case Study(11th International Conference on Structural Safety & Reliability, 2013-06-16) Peng, J.; Shan, Xiaojun; Davidson, R. A.; Kesete, Y.; Gao, Y.; Nozick, L. K.Abstract not available.Item Insurance and Retrofit in Managing Urban Natural Disaster Risk(2014-09-29) Davidson, R. A.; Peng, J.; Shan, Xiaojun; Gao, Y.; Kesete, Y.; Nozick, L. K.; Kruse, J.Abstract not available.Item Market Insurance and Self-insurance through Retrofit: analysis for hurricane risk in North Carolina(2017) Shan, Xiaojun; Peng, J.; Kesete, Y.; Gao, Y.; Davidson, R. A.; Kruse, J.; Nozick, L. K.Insurance and retrofit are potentially effective but underutilized mechanisms to manage natural disaster risk (Mileti 1999). This project uses a North Carolina case study of residential buildings in North Carolina that includes a detailed, empirically based representation of the building inventory, risk, insurance, and retrofit strategies to examine voluntary choices between insuring, retrofitting, or doing nothing. Using an expected utility framework, changes in optimal choices in response to changes in retrofit cost, risk-based insurance premiums, and risk attitudes are investigated. Individual loss distribution functions that are specific to location and structural characteristics influence whether to optimally insure and/or retrofit or not. Findings include the conclusion that subsidizing retrofits has the potential to move the uninsured towards some form of risk reduction and is potentially cost effective. The analysis is novel in linking expected utility-maximizing homeowner decisions regionally to detailed hurricane loss and retrofit modeling.Item Math Modeling to Support Regional Natural Disaster Risk Management(Earthquake Engineering Research Institute, 2014-07-21) Peng, J.; Kesete, Y.; Gao, Y.; Shan, Xiaojun; Davidson, R. A.; Nozick, L. K.; Kruse, J.We apply a new mathematical modeling framework to examine how the magnitude and nature of the natural disaster risk being managed affects insurer and homeowner risk management decisions and outcomes. The framework includes three interacting models representing the insurer's pricing and risk transfer decisions, each homeowner's insurance and retrofit decisions, and regional hurricane loss. By comparing runs that consider only wind-related damage to those that consider only storm surge flood-related damage, the analysis demonstrates how differences in size and geographic extent of the insurance market, loss distributions of the individual homes and entire region, and available retrofit alternatives affect the optimal insurer and homeowner choices and outcomes. The framework could be adapted for earthquake or multihazard application.Item Modeling Insurer-homeowner Interactions in Managing Natural Disaster Risk(2014) Kesete, Y.; Peng, J.; Shan, Xiaojun; Gao, Y.; Davidson, R. A.; Nozick, L. K.; Kruse, J.The current system for managing natural disaster risk in the United States is problematic for both homeowners and insurers. Homeowners are often uninsured or underinsured against natural disaster losses, and typically do not invest in retrofits that can reduce losses. Insurers often do not want to insure against these losses, which are some of their biggest exposures and can cause an undesirably high chance of insolvency. There is a need to design an improved system that acknowledges the different perspectives of the stakeholders. In this article, we introduce a new modeling framework to help understand and manage the insurer's role in catastrophe risk management. The framework includes a new game-theoretic optimization model of insurer decisions that interacts with a utility-based homeowner decision model and is integrated with a regional catastrophe loss estimation model. Reinsurer and government roles are represented as bounds on the insurer-insured interactions. We demonstrate the model for a full-scale case study for hurricane risk to residential buildings in eastern North Carolina; present the results from the perspectives of all stakeholders-primary insurers, homeowners (insured and uninsured), and reinsurers; and examine the effect of key parameters on the results.Item Modeling the Integrated Roles of Insurance and Retrofit in Managing Natural Disaster Risk: A Multi-stakeholder Perspective(2014) Peng, J.; Shan, Xiaojun; Kesete, Y.; Gao, Y.; Davidson, R. A.; Nozick, L. K.; Kruse, J.This paper introduces a new modeling framework to understand and improve regional natural disaster risk management in the USA, including the interactions among key stakeholders and between the two important risk management mechanisms of insurance and retrofit. The framework includes a stochastic programming optimization to represent insurer decisions, which interacts with a utility-based model of individual homeowners’ decisions to insure and/or retrofit. Reinsurer and government roles are represented as inputs, and the decision models are integrated with a detailed regional catastrophe loss estimation model. This modeling framework is applied to a full-scale, realistic case study for hurricane risk to residential buildings in Eastern North Carolina. Several alternative system configurations are considered that affect the incentives for adoption of alternative risk management methods. They include providing a government subsidy for insured homeowners to encourage retrofit, providing both a government subsidy and insurance rebate to reduce retrofit costs, and mandating insurance purchase with a cap on insurance premiums. For each configuration, outcomes are presented from the perspectives of all key stakeholders—primary insurer, homeowners (insured and uninsured, in high- and low-risk areas), reinsurers, and the government. Results suggest that it is possible to design policies in which all stakeholders can be better off simultaneously. Retrofit incentives for insured homeowners can be effective in linking and strengthening the benefits of retrofit and insurance. Mandatory insurance coupled with capped profit loading factors and possibly retrofit rebates from the insurer to the homeowner can also reduce overall system risk.